From searing temperatures to torrential rain, extreme weather events are becoming more commonplace due to the effects of climate change. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine crisis — which continues to block grain exports despite talks of a “Black Sea Initiative” deal — these macro stresses are taking their toll on the global agricultural commodities market.

Agricultural supply is highly weather-dependent and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle — a natural climate phenomenon involving changes in the water temperatures of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — has a strong bearing on world crop production. On top of this, extreme weather events and climate change are increasing the risks of crop failure.

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